If you couldn’t have Jordan Spieth’s 2015 season, you would probably want Jason Day’s. Jason made nearly $12M on the course last year. And to think that was 2nd on the list is mindboggling. To show you what sort of year Jason Day had, I have displayed in the chart below all of Jason Day’s 2015 scores and the frequency in which he shot those scores (please note there may be some European Tour scores included).
You can see that his average score was 68.86 and his median was 69.2. These scores are also displayed with lines on the chart. His average score is depicted with a blue line and his median with a white line. The median for those who don’t know (or remember from college stats class) is the middle which in this case means there are as many rounds of golf and therefore scores on the left side of the white line as there are on the right side of the white line. That said, the scores on the left side of the white line are lower than the median and the scores on the right side of the white line are higher.
Things to Note:
• The difference between his best and worst scores of the 2015 season was 20 strokes. Take out the horrible 81 and it’s still a 15 stroke difference between his best (61) and worst (76) rounds of the year. I have done this charting on several players over the past few years and the lowest margin between best and worst rounds was Yani Tseng with 12 strokes in 2011.
• There is a 50% chance that he’ll shoot his median score or lower and a 50% chance that he’ll shoot his median score or higher.
• The best players in the world tend to have a 13-14 stroke gap between their best and worst rounds of the year.
• Players tend to shoot their lowest score only one or maybe two times during a season.
• All golfers have some sort of “bell” curve of shots. It’s very challenging to squish that curve to less than a 12 shot difference. We’re all just working to move the curve to the left giving us a lower scoring average.
• If you divided this chart into thirds with an equal number of rounds into each third, you can begin to think that there are average scores, worse than average scores and better than average scores. That said, the same concept is true for the kinds of bounces you will encounter, the kinds of weather you will play in, the types of courses you will play, the personality of the opponents you will play with, the tee time you draw, the type of warm-up you may have and more.
Next week, I will post Jordan Spieth’s 2015 chart and we’ll see how these two players compare.
A special thank you goes out to Dr. Rick Jensen for sharing his wisdom and who explains such charts so wonderfully with his famous jar of marbles.